Electric vehicles might be in for a long wait when it comes to global adoption.
That’s according to a chart from JPMorgan, entitled “The Elephants in the Room,” which in part discusses how disruption can move at a slow pace when it comes to targeting behavioral change:
GroupM, Census, BP, IEA, FHV, Pew Research, NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission, JPMAM 2021
The chart indicates that it took roughly two decades for almost 90% of the U.S. population to get a mobile phone, while developing-world internet access is still hovering at around 55% from its start in 2000.
At the bottom of the chart, is a small black line that reveals the tiny take-up of electric vehicles as a share of global autos owned. Just above that is a green line showing a long slow and maybe around 2% take-up of wind and solar share of global primary energy consumption.
Granted, there are massive differences between the cost of what’s seen on this chart —- free internet versus the cost of a Tesla — the cheapest Model 3 starts at just under $40,000 and the price of a cellphone, maybe just over $700 for an iPhone.
Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPM and the paper’s author also notes the performances of fossil fuel companies and their “reportedly stranded assets”. As his chart shows, fossil fuel companies are beating their renewable energy rivals. That’s due to world-wide commodity shortages sparked by the pandemic and a European war.
Bloomberg, MSCI, JPMAM, April 29, 2022